Will Bosnia Survive Dayton?: Highlights

The Defensibility and Viability of Bosnia after Dayton
by Stephen Walker, 6/10/96

More than four months after the signing of the Dayton Accords and the deployment of U.S. troops to Bosnia, the NATO-led implementation force (IFOR) has completed its primary objective -- separating the armed forces involved in the conflict -- and has begun to lay plans for its departure in December. But that departure is already being delayed (it was originally planned to be completed by December, now it will begin in December) and there is some discussion of maintaining an "IFOR-lite" force in Bosnia indefinitely.

I would argue that the delays and the consideration of keeping foreign troops in Bosnia are the result of inherent flaws and contradictions in the Dayton Accords and the IFOR mission. We are not preserving a unitary, multi-ethnic Bosnia -- which was supposed to be the goal of the Accords -- but, instead, are deepening the partition and sowing the seeds for future conflict. We are not creating a safe and secure environment for the return of refugees and the conduct of free and fair elections, but, instead, IFOR is preventing refugees from returning to their homes, acting as "apartheid police." IFOR is not arresting indicted war criminals but, instead, allows them to move freely (including through IFOR checkpoints) and remain in charge of forces committed to Bosnia's destruction.

Perhaps most disturbingly, the rump Bosnia IFOR will leave behind is militarily indefensible and is unlikely to have the weapons necessary for its defense due to delays and limits on the U.S.-led arm-and-train program.

Zen and the Art of Bosnian Politics
by Marko Puljic, 6/10/96

Ahh... the $65,000 question, will Bosnia survive post Dayton?

As someone who is following the war from a Bosnian Croat standpoint, and therefore in the "thick of things" as it were, the honest answer that I have is: I don't know. I could sooner predict what will happen in Chechnya with a fair amount of certainty, before I could even come close to wondering what will happen next in Bosnia. ... I do not think we will ever see a return to the Bosnia of old. Bosnia's multi-ethnicity has been the greatest victim of this war, and I do not see much hope that it will come together again anytime soon.

Let's not forget how this all started.
by Nalini Lasiewicz, 6/13/96

It is true that a huge number of Serbs no longer live in the towns and villages they were in before. The vast majority of displaced among non-Serbs has been on the move since 1992. ... They are all victims, none the less. However, the contrast with the ethnic cleansing of non-Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia was far more of a direct military attack and in the case of the Bosnian Muslims, perhaps even a systematic campaign of genocide.

Modified Dayton - The Best Chance
by Ivan D. Trifunovich, 6/17/96

Now, the war is over. Serbs are cleansed from Krajina and Muslim-Croat Federation, Muslims and Croats from Republika Srpska. Much is being said about the inability of refugees to return, but I am curious who in his normal state of mind would like to return?

Ethnic Apartheid
by Scott O'Connnor, 6/19/96

Who ever would have guessed that in the space of a few years apartheid would end in South Africa and begin in Europe? NATO refuses to enforce the provisions for refugee repatriation in Bosnia and instead acts as a border guard between the Federation and Republika srpska. The nationalists who have an interest in a partitioned Bosnia have no trouble intimidating refugees or NATO. Ethnic cleansing is still happening in Teslic as Serb nationalists force out the remaining muslim population. Muslim refugees have been unable to return to croat held Stolac. And in Sarajevo Serbs have been harrassed, attacked, and are losing their homes. The lack of response to these latest acts, by the US, UN, EC, and NATO, gives tacit consent to their perpetrators.The concept of ethnically pure states is incompatible with democracy and western values, not to mention repulsive.